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Professional/solid winning players: What percentage of your cash sessions are profitable?
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As the title suggests, I am trying to improve my cash game and am trying to get some insight as to the percentage of sessions I can expect to win at in the longrun if I am or do become a winning cash game player. I don't play as much as I used to due to the fact that I'm out of college and have responsibilities now unfortunately, but when I do start to play more, I'm looking to control and be prepared for variance and swings and would like to gauge how my winning percentage stacks up to other serious players who already win in the longrun. Thanks!
Top Comment:
Percentage of sessions being profitable is a meaningless statistic.
If somebody loses $100 nine times and then has a session where he cashes out for $5000. He has made $4100 and 10% of his sessions are profitable.
If somebody wins $100 nine times and then loses $5000, he is $4100 in the hole, but 90% of his sessions are profitable.
So do you want 90% profitable sessions or 10%?
Anybody winning ACR cash games?
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Is anyone on r/poker posting a good win rate on NLHE games on the site? Just wondering what an achievable win rate would look like. I know u/Vegetablesarentyummy is a crusher but is anyone else doing well enough to brag about it? (and maybe wants to give some tips lol)
Top Comment:
Have played on Absolute Poker, Paradise Poker, PS, FT, Sportsbook, Lock Poker (lol), Bovada, Ignition, Americas Cardroom.
I realize that some of these sites were pre-BF when the fish were plentiful, but I can say without a doubt in my mind that the ACR NL25-NL200 are the hardest cash games I have ever played. Anything below 2/4 is incredibly hard to put together a strong win rate imo....it basically is break even and collect the RB on there. Good luck tho.
I won $1,000 a day for LIFE. (AMA).
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Yup, you read the title correctly. I won $1,000 a day for life from the lottery. Winning something like this is amazing and I couldn't be more excited.. I feel like there's been a HUGE weight lifted off my shoulders.. If you're curious what I'm going to do with my winnings, or are curious as to how I feel this will impact me, or if you have any other questions, AMA!
Top Comment: What do you have planned?
Winning crash strategy
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I created a strategy for crash that has a positive expected value, and it's actually pretty simple. Start with a 1 dollar bet, set the auto cash out to 3.00x, then double the amount you are betting with each time you lose, starting over if you win, and resetting if you reach the maximum win without actually winning a round. For example:
Start with $1 bet-
Round 1: Multiplier goes to 1.4x, you lose, double the next bet to $2
Round 2: Multiplier goes to 3.2x, you would win $6 here, and set the next bet to $1, starting over
Eventually you will lose several times in a row, doubling the bet each time -> 2, 4, 8... all the way up to 4096 as the highest bet you are willing to make, then resetting the bet to one dollar even if you don't win at 4096. For example:
You lose 12 in a row and bet 4096 for the next round
Round 13: Multiplier goes to 1.21x, you lose. Now the bet will reset to $1 just like it would have if you had won, even though you didn't.
I tested this strategy over 500 rounds today (theoretically, I can't actually place bets) and was able to generate a consistent profit. If you are interested in testing this yourself, I would recommend using the demo function first, then starting with very small (1 cent) bets, as I have not been able to confirm this works when using real money, as the algorithm might change depending on how much you bet. Play at your own risk :)
P.S. These are the actual %'s for each win in $ (ex. bet 1, lose bet 2, lose, bet 3, win 12, but you lost 3 leading up to it, so total profit is 9)
32% $3
21.76% $5
14.80% $9
10.06% $17
6.84% $33
4.65% $65
3.16% $129
2.15% $257
1.46% $513
0.99% $1025
0.68% $2049
0.46% $4097
0.31% $8193
0.98% $-8191
P.P.S. This was probably kind of confusing, if there's anything I didn't explain very well, comment and I'll probably reply
Top Comment: Wouldn’t this be consistent with the martingale strategy of blackjack, or of any standard betting? I got bored halfway through, and figured it was the exact strategy I used... I’ve only been playing with 1000.00 at a time, so I’ve never had enough to last twelve rounds of straight losing. Which has happened twice now. So I’m on a brief hiatus until I make up the money elsewhere hahha
Average winning player stats?
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Just wanted to know, what % of the time would a professional/winning cash game player cash out a profit per buyin, I understand one can run bad continuously and cash out huge in a single session.
Also, if a bankroll of 20-40 buyins is sustainable, what does that really mean? Can the player lose 39 buyins due to variance and make it all back on the 40th buyin? I don’t understand where to draw the line, if a player loses even 10 buyins straight, I’d say they are doing something wrong?
Top Comment:
I'd consider my self above average, I'm winning 76.4% of my sessions. If I exclude breakeven +/- 10 BB (I wouldn't consider losing 10BB or winning 10BB anything other than breakeven basically, I'm winning 70.8% of my sessions. That's the last 3 years worth of data. Keep in mind, I'm playing in dream games (5/T, 2/5, and 1/2 that are basically 6 people playing bingo, 3 actual thinkers), so my win rate would probably be a bit higher if I weren't just put in absurd variance spots constantly. Prior to then, my win rate was probably not nearly as high and right now my win rate is probably slightly lower as I haven't played in two months (work, life, etc keeping me busy, but FRIDAY!?! CAN'T WAIT!).
Average winning player is probably pulling 60% or more.
Crusher is probably 80% or more.
OMC's are 100%. Fuckers always find some shmuck to double them up when they play their one hand a sessions. It's insane.